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THE END, MAYBE (Read 1600 times)
joeb33050
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THE END, MAYBE
Dec 3rd, 2013 at 5:49am
 
WIND, EQPT, SKILL, CHANCE,  CAST BULLET ACCURACY

     Accuracy is affected by and is the product of: wind, equipment, skill and chance.
     One example is 5 shot 100 yard groups.
     Average group size is 1.190", and with no wind, or if we learned to compensate perfectly for the wind, would be 1.144", a difference of .046".
      Equipment differences/improvements such as the difference between Production and Heavy class equipment reduce average group size from 1.190" to .845", a difference of .345".
Shooter skill varies group size so:
     Average group size is 1.190"                  Differences
     First place average group size is .731".                  
     Second place average group size is .871".      Second to first =.140"
     Third place average group size is .974".      Third to second = 103"
     Fourth place average group size is 1.070".      Fourth to third = 096"
     Fifth place average group size is 1.133".      Fifth to fourth = .063"

     Improving skill one level reduces average group size between .140" and .063".

Differences:
Wind            .046"
Equipment      .345"
Skill            .063" to .140"
     
     Wind affects accuracy least, although much more as range increases. Skill affects accuracy more, but less than Equipment. It's hard to imagine an Equipment improvement, above the Heavy class equipment, that is as great as the difference between Production and Heavy equipment.
     These changes in group size don't simply add. The changes, in inches, must be squared, the squares summed, and the square root of the sum is the combined change. If the effects of Wind, .046", and Equipment, .345" were eliminated, and Skill improved from Second to First, .140"; then the total of the three is .531" but the combined reduction in group size is .375".

I think that meticulous attention to detail will not increase accuracy substantially; that to substantially improve cast bullet accuracy-and I'm not sure that that is a reasonable or sensible goal-the recipe needs changing. I think that the difference in accuracy between jacketed and cast bullets is not in skill or e
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joeb33050
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #1 - Dec 3rd, 2013 at 5:50am
 
I think that meticulous attention to detail will not increase accuracy substantially; that to substantially improve cast bullet accuracy-and I'm not sure that that is a reasonable or sensible goal-the recipe needs changing. I think that the difference in accuracy between jacketed and cast bullets is not in skill or equipment or chance; but is in the bullets. I think that accuracy might be found at higher velocities, with swaged bullets, or with bullets cast of harder alloys allowing higher velocities. Zinc?

Now, is all this statistics stuff true? It's as true as I can make it, with a bucket of assumptions. It's certainly not true in any X.XXX precision sense; it's about approximations and tendencies and relative magnitudes. And, there's a tiny chance that I made a mistake. I know.   
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QuestionableMaynard8130
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #2 - Dec 3rd, 2013 at 6:42am
 
but our core ASSRA rules call for plain based lead alloy bullets. So we are limited at least in that area.   Other shooting venues may have other rules  where your science may be of more value.
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joeb33050
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #3 - Dec 3rd, 2013 at 4:56pm
 
QuestionableMaynard8130 wrote on Dec 3rd, 2013 at 6:42am:
but our core ASSRA rules call for plain based lead alloy bullets. So we are limited at least in that area.   Other shooting venues may have other rules  where your science may be of more value.


SWAGED?? Can we SWAGE? Doesn't it mention SWAGED? How about SWAGING? Didn't I mention SWAGING above? Read carefully! Pay attention!
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QuestionableMaynard8130
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #4 - Dec 3rd, 2013 at 5:19pm
 
sorry Joe,   I just get all brain frozen with all your statistical details
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Cat_Whisperer
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #5 - Dec 3rd, 2013 at 5:51pm
 
QuestionableMaynard8130 wrote on Dec 3rd, 2013 at 5:19pm:
sorry Joe,   I just get all brain frozen with all your statistical details


It could be much better written up and the noodle-head insults (that are given if you don't agree with him) could be eliminated.

But who would we have to laugh at?  We have here a seemingly educated man who slings numbers with less than minimal explanations that seemingly provide a learned answer to the questions that no one has asked.

Enjoy the brain freeze!  JoeB isn't going to change, the moderators aren't going to influence his behavior and his real knowledge will be hidden in cryptic numbers and hostile actions towards others.

There is (likely) some good experience and  knowledge there, but "doesn't play well with others" is too much in the foreground.

Just my humble, but accurate, opinion.
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40_Rod
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Extremism in the persuit
of accuracy is not a
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #6 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 8:25am
 
Beyond mathematical masturbation I fail to see how any of this helps. Further more I reject your hypothesis that wind has the least effect on accuracy. The longer I spend in the plain based bench rest game the more I am convinced that understanding the wind is the keys to the kingdom. I don’t think that I will live long enough to truly understand it. But I try.

40 Rod
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QuestionableMaynard8130
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #7 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 8:59am
 
Grin Grin Grin Grin
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CaryT
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #8 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 12:43pm
 
Lets put my foot in my mouth.  (Actually I should stay silent on this, but what the heck I'm bored.)
Statistics is obviously Joe's 'beyounce'.  I could care less, but he has that right. 
I for one am always trying to eliminate that one 'bad' shot because in the sport of silhouette, 1 is the difference between the winner and all the rest, and I like that part.  I am always, always trying to figure out 'what happened on that shot'.  I seldom find the answer.  I do not think it has anything to do with luck, things just happen that we do not know about.  We try to eliminate as many possibilities for error as possible, and shoot.  Most times we are successful to the degree that we make good shots.  Sometimes, something creeps in to change that, (Joes opportunity to shine here), WHY?  If I could ever figure this out I would improve to a 'winner' more times then being a 'loser'.  We develop our skill set based on a number of factors.  Building ammo and practicing,  etc., etc., alway trying to improve on all aspects, but somehow I never seem to eliminate that 'one' variable that always seems to creep in somewhere.  At least that has been my experience in 40 years of shooting.  Does it mean I quit trying NO, but sometimes it is damn frustrating.
I know there have been 250's scored, but to my knowledge there has never been a 40 or a 60 put up in my discipline of BPCR silhouette.  I will continue to chase that objective, probably with a minimal chance of achieving it,  but hey what else is there to do, right Joe. 
I enjoy reading some of your 'tirades', although most times they bring me little useful info that I can use.  But, if that is what turns your tutu keep it up and I will continue to read,,,,,,,,,,, or ignore.
Have a great Day
Cary
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boats
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #9 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 2:37pm
 
Cary you are on to the "truth" it’s not often articulated.

Fact of the matter is only thing that counts is final match place.    Silhouette, Bulls Eye Target, Shotgun  matches, whatever, are generally decided by one or two shots.  Shooter can look at averages, trends, best ever, it makes no difference. Somebody shoots a 2134 Hudson next guy shoots a 2135 the high score wins. 36 Silhouette beats a 35. 249 bench target wins over 248. Our club matches 30+ shooters most times less than 4 misses between the top dozen shooters.

Only thing Important at top level is lack of errors that cost points.   No need for a calculator, keep track of your errors. Write them down in  a shooters log, analyze the reasons why, figure out how to avoid in the future.  Focus on minimizing errors & you will be rewarded.

Harry Pope summed it in a few words. It's not a good shot that makes your score it's the absence of bad shots.

Boats
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graduated peep
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #10 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 3:37pm
 
[quote

Harry Pope summed it in a few words. It's not a good shot that makes your score it's the absence of bad shots.

Boats [/quote]
I wonder if Harry attended baseball games ??

"The thing I like about baseball is that it's one-on-one. You stand up there alone, and if you make a mistake, it's your mistake. If you hit a home run, it's your home run."
Hank Aaron
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/baseball_3.html#CMLaUkoOZZXPuukS.99
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joeb33050
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #11 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 3:40pm
 
We shoot primer x and primer y to see which is more accurate. Aspirin vs tylenol. Coke vs Pepsi. Alloy with antimony vs no antimony. But John, who ever compared wind compensation and no compensation? Did you? I'd suggest that your wind compensation is merely air masturbation, because you don't know if your compensation works or not. BTW, I DO know if and how much wind compensation works.


40_Rod wrote on Dec 4th, 2013 at 8:25am:
Beyond mathematical masturbation I fail to see how any of this helps. Further more I reject your hypothesis that wind has the least effect on accuracy. The longer I spend in the plain based bench rest game the more I am convinced that understanding the wind is the keys to the kingdom. I don’t think that I will live long enough to truly understand it. But I try.

40 Rod

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joeb33050
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #12 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 3:50pm
 
boats wrote on Dec 4th, 2013 at 2:37pm:
Harry Pope summed it in a few words. It's not a good shot that makes your score it's the absence of bad shots.

Boats


You know, that's nonsense. Your score is made of a set of shots with an average. The shooter with the highest average wins. The only time that Harry's quote makes sense is when the field has the same ability-all of them. Only then does the absence of bad shots - or some bad shots by some shooters-"make" the score.
It's the difference between Jim Feren and Joe Brennan.

So, along with breech muzzle loading and the 25 caliber match rifle and the left hand twist, St. Harry was wrong about this too. Just think about it.
(am I going to hell?)
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boats
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #13 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 4:00pm
 
Given a choice Joe B or Harry Pope I think I will take Harry's advice, he won a lot of matches.

Boats
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joeb33050
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Re: THE END, MAYBE
Reply #14 - Dec 4th, 2013 at 4:44pm
 
boats wrote on Dec 4th, 2013 at 4:00pm:
Given a choice Joe B or Harry Pope I think I will take Harry's advice, he won a lot of matches.

Boats


Why not think about it, and make up your OWN mind?
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