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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) collecting future (Read 12230 times)
Ballard6
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collecting future
Oct 29th, 2018 at 9:24pm
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Guys   I just returned from a gun show in Louisville and the interest in single shots was almost non-existent.  It looks like the younger generation just has an interest in semi-automatic black firearms.  Don't care about the craftmanship that went into making these wonderful guns.  As a result the selling price of even Pope's have fallen dramatically.  What say ye about the future of these great guns ?
  
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slumlord44
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Re: collecting future
Reply #1 - Oct 29th, 2018 at 9:48pm
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Mabe I will be able to afford the Stevens Pope thats on my bucket list. If its anything like cars prices will eventually level out. Model T's and Model A's have been stagnent for years. Street rod versions keep going up though.
  
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marlinguy
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Re: collecting future
Reply #2 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 10:02am
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If you talk o any of the fellas who've dealt in high end single shots today, they'll all tell you the prices are down 20-30% over what they were 10 years ago. I don't believe it's got much to do with a lack of interest though. I think it's more about the economy.
In past history, whenever the economy booms, collectible firearms (or any collectibles) always drop off in value. It's a case of those with money to spend having it tied up in the market where it's doing quite well. When the market falters those same people pull their funds out and invest them elsewhere. That usually means collectible guns, cars, antiques, etc., all go way up in value.
In past years I felt I'd never be able to own some of those  single shot rifles built by the great custom makers. The prices were just too exorbitant to fit into my collecting budget. But in the last few years I've found quite a few at prices I'd never dreamed would be so affordable and added them to my collection.
Right now is the time to buy, if you've dreamed of owning a Pope, Schoyen, Niedner, Zischang, or others. I don't think they'll drop in price going forward, and whatever you buy will go up later. But even if it doesn't go up before we pass them on, they're at a price that we can finally afford, so buy them if you've always dreamed of owning one!
Those black rifles are all the rage for so many young people today because they too have suffered from a glut of them on the market. The days of them being over $1,000 are long gone! Name brand black rifles like the AR15 clones are under $400, so that's why all those young guys are going nuts for them.
So if investment is your reason for buying, then buy one of those too! I bought one 2 years ago NIB for under $400, and still haven't fired it. If the market goes crazy again I'll sell my NIB AR15 and put the money towards another single shot rifle!
  

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Redsetter
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Re: collecting future
Reply #3 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 10:12am
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JLouis wrote on Oct 29th, 2018 at 10:50pm:
Sadly those Pope's and other well known makers like him that I have seen sold on Rock Island not to many years back from $30,000 and up to the $70,000 range presumably as an investment are going to end up being a huge monetary loss.


What's sad about high-rollers failing to get even richer?  They priced me out of the market many yrs ago.
  
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OLD TUCK
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Re: collecting future
Reply #4 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 11:42am
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A friend of mine who had been buying Single Shots for many years before I was even able to participate in owning and shooting SS rifles, advised me many times to "look for High Grade in very good to excellent condition" He said they would always be in demand. When I would purchase a good condition standard rifle he would say. "That Rifle will shoot better than you are capable of shooting and you will have a lot of fun with it" But when you go to sell or trade you will only realize what you paid for it. He was right, I bought and sold many of those with no significant gain. But many of the High Grade I have accumulated have increased in value, some as much as 10 times what I paid for them and I have been shooting them for years. So for the moment I am OK with this poor market. The long range plan for me is to leave them to my Son and Daughter with direction on how and what to sell them for. They are not shooting enthusiast's. But will be able to use the Money for their children's education or start in life. After all we are just the Custodians of them. Our task is to keep them for future enthusiasts to enjoy. Just my thoughts on this issue.
Regards, FITZ.OLD TUCK Smiley
  
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Bill Lawrence
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Re: collecting future
Reply #5 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 12:24pm
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I'm going to put on my Professional Appraiser's hat now, climb onto my trusty soapbox, and spout.

This is what I tell my clients who are hidebound to acquire collectibles and antiques as "investments".  In my world, we simplify matters by rating things as "good", "better', "best", and "masterpiece".  In simplified terms, of any given item, "good" represents" the upper 50% of the examples available; "better" the upper 25 %; "best" the upper 10 %; "masterpiece" the upper 1 %.  You never buy anything that's not at least "good".  If you buy "good", "better", or even "best" examples, do so because you want to primarily enjoy them, for over time unless by some miracle you got them as they used to say "dirt cheap", they will all go down some in value and may or may not recover.  Only true "masterpieces" are likely to hold their value, let alone increase in value significantly.

In short, if you're going to buy for monetary investment, you'll need a big bankroll to even start. since "incredible luck" never lasts long and planning and patience too often fall by the wayside.

Bill Lawrence
  
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marlinguy
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Re: collecting future
Reply #6 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 12:24pm
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Redsetter wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 10:12am:
JLouis wrote on Oct 29th, 2018 at 10:50pm:
Sadly those Pope's and other well known makers like him that I have seen sold on Rock Island not to many years back from $30,000 and up to the $70,000 range presumably as an investment are going to end up being a huge monetary loss.


What's sad about high-rollers failing to get even richer?  They priced me out of the market many yrs ago.


Envy doesn't look good on you, or anyone else.
  

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rgchristensen
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Re: collecting future
Reply #7 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 1:29pm
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     I was chatting with a collector of shotguns about buying fine guns as an investment.   We finally agreed that if one was going to do this, he would have to know the market really well.  AND, if someone knew the market that well, then he would do better by buying and selling them, than by holding them for appreciation.
     Looks like the thing to do is to buy guns that you really LIKE, and forget about business aspects.
CHRIS
RGChristensen
  
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marlinguy
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Re: collecting future
Reply #8 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 1:35pm
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rgchristensen wrote on Oct 30th, 2018 at 1:29pm:
     I was chatting with a collector of shotguns about buying fine guns as an investment.   We finally agreed that if one was going to do this, he would have to know the market really well.  AND, if someone knew the market that well, then he would do better by buying and selling them, than by holding them for appreciation.
     Looks like the thing to do is to buy guns that you really LIKE, and forget about business aspects.
CHRIS
RGChristensen


I think this is especially true as we get older Chris! We don't have enough time left to buy them and stash them away until prices return to higher values.
  

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GT
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Re: collecting future
Reply #9 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 2:26pm
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     Looks like the thing to do is to buy guns that you really LIKE, and forget about business aspects.
CHRIS
RGChristensen [/quote]

Smiley
I decide to live like that a long time ago! 
It goes against the fabric to even think about selling or trading any more... but I have kids now that finally realize or have developed a genuine interest in these firearms. 
I'm Lucky!
  

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Reverend Al
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Re: collecting future
Reply #10 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 2:34pm
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This thread reminds me a bit of the old farmer that won $4 million dollars on the lottery.  The media went to interview him about it and asked: "What will you do with this huge windfall?  Build a fancy new house?  Travel the world?  Buy several exotic cars?"

The farmer replied: "No ... I think that I'll just keep on farming until it's all gone ..."

When I have bought guns I've never worried much about what they are worth today or tomorrow, or what they will be worth down the road if I ever decide to sell or trade them.  I buy guns, especially single shot rifles, because they appeal to me and I thoroughly enjoy owning and shooting them.  After I'm gone it won't matter to me if my heirs make a profit or loss on any of my assets (my guns included) but I will have had the privilege of having owned and enjoyed some wonderful rifles while I was still around and able to do so.  Their value to me is far more than monetary ...
  

I may have passed my "Best Before" date, but I haven't quite reached my "Expiry" date yet ...
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Schutzenbob
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Re: collecting future
Reply #11 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 3:20pm
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Everything, including single shot rifles, is cyclical. When Mauser's and Springfield's came out, nobody wanted a single-shot anymore, single shots became obsolete. A few ardent shooters and collectors bought them up, and by the 50's and 60's you rarely saw a single-shot for sale. As the old collectors began dying off, single-shots started showing up at gun shows and auctions. Now I've noticed single-shot rifles and equipment showing up everywhere, and nobody even knows what it is. For shooters it's really fun, but not so much for investors.  Wink
  
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Gunfunpow
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Re: collecting future
Reply #12 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 3:51pm
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It's interesting this topic has come up, as I've been giving it a lot of thought and research. I have a Pope barreled Ballard that I got some years ago from a private seller locally. Sadly, I missed the wave of enthusiasm for single shot collecting and am now trying to sell in a virtually flat market. And that's a flat market generally. Antique furniture, art, and other collectables are stagnant due to these large factors: Folks who care about these things are dying off, and if they haven't, they're downsizing, increasing the market size through divestiture. Young millennials who don't care or know much about history, seek technology and gaming. They buy things that are marketed as green, like bamboo flooring and such. Hunting and shooting are generally in disfavor. Remember that the liberal educational establishment has had their formative years to instill the let's propaganda into our young. It's interesting that the executives of all the tech companies send their kids to schools that do learning via books, paper and pencil. As opposed to public school that uses all the computers, Ipads, and tech those company's said our kids need to become geniuses.
Of course, even with the stock market being in the midst of a downturn, people who have sold off their art, antiques, etc, will still put money into the bond and stock market, just cause it's safer, easier, and a better return.
Just recently I took my Ballard to have it appraised at a local firearms auction house and had a very good discussion regarding all the points I raised and the two reps basically agreed, saying, in part, that most young people are interested in WW2 era and later. Old revolvers? Ho hum, big yawn. Anything from prior to WW2 is selling for practically half of what it once was. Why the big interest in WW2? Private Ryan, Fury, and Call of Duty. Yup, that last one's a video game. So, yeah, economics, social mores, and a diminishing market are gradually shrinking the value on average firearms. Napolean's jewel encrusted shotgun and firearms like that will always be in demand. The Ballard you thought so special? Not so much chum. So too your M1 Garand etc.
It's not all doom and gloom though, it's a good time to buy and enjoy those things you want, as an example my Pope/Ballard rifle! Grin Grin
  
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moodyholler
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Re: collecting future
Reply #13 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 4:29pm
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I buy what I like. I bought 90 acres of land as an investment. Sure fire money maker. Mh
  
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Re: collecting future
Reply #14 - Oct 30th, 2018 at 5:15pm
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Prices at Rock Island and other major auctions are still up there.

You can complain about what a hassle an auction is, but the buyers are paying decent prices and the vig.

Aaron
  

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